Valley Forecast Check · Week 3 · Oct. 27–Nov. 1
Highs in the mid-80s through Thursday, then storms roll in Friday. Saturday (Halloween) has a lower rain chance, and more rain is likely Sunday. All four stations agree almost to the degree through Thursday, but they split on how cool it gets: Arizona's Family and FOX 10 see highs in the 60s by Sunday, while ABC15 and 12News say 72.
This week's highs
Daily high in degrees, for Phoenix. The Average row is all four stations.
| Station | Tue 10/27 | Wed 10/28 | Thu 10/29 | Fri 10/30 | Sat 10/31 | Sun 11/1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC15 | 87 | 87 | 86 | 76 | 76 | 72 |
| AZFamily | 86 | 87 | 86 | 71 | 74 | 66 |
| FOX 10 | 86 | 87 | 86 | 72 | 76 | 68 |
| 12News | 87 | 87 | 86 | 76 | 76 | 72 |
| Average | 87 | 87 | 86 | 74 | 76 | 70 |
2 or more degrees off from the other stations.
This week's rain chances
Rain chance: the odds that any one spot gets at least 0.01 inch. FOX 10 shows icons, not percentages, so we list the icon as a word. The average uses the three stations with percentages.
| Station | Tue 10/27 | Wed 10/28 | Thu 10/29 | Fri 10/30 | Sat 10/31 | Sun 11/1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC15 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 70% | 30% | 70% |
| AZFamily | 1% | 1% | 8% | 82% | 24% | 76% |
| FOX 10 | Sunny | Mostly sunny | Mostly cloudy | Storms | Mostly cloudy | Rain |
| 12News | 0% | 0% | 10% | 70% | 30% | 80% |
| Average | 0% | 0% | 9% | 74% | 28% | 75% |
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How right were they? Last week's scorecard
Sky Harbor stayed dry all five days. Thursday ran hot: 89 degrees, 5 to 7 degrees warmer than any station expected, on a day two of them gave a 70% or 80% chance of rain.
| Station | Thu 10/22 | Fri 10/23 | Sat 10/24 | Sun 10/25 | Mon 10/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 89 | 82 | 77 | 83 | 86* |
| Rain | Dry | Dry | Dry | Dry | Dry* |
| ABC15 | 84 −5 | 79 −3 | 79 +2 | 81 −2 | 84 −2 |
| AZFamily | 83 −6 | 79 −3 | 78 +1 | 81 −2 | 85 −1 |
| FOX 10 | 83 −6 | 79 −3 | 78 +1 | 81 −2 | 85 −1 |
| 12News | 82 −7 | 78 −4 | 78 +1 | 80 −3 | 83 −3 |
Actual = National Weather Service, Sky Harbor. The small number under each forecast is how far off it was. *Early (preliminary) number.
- AZFamily (tied for most accurate): Off by 13 degrees total over 5 days, about 3 degrees a day. Kept every day under 20% (19% on Thursday), and Sky Harbor stayed dry: right.
- FOX 10 (tied for most accurate): Off by 13 degrees total over 5 days, about 3 degrees a day. Showed clouds Thursday and Monday and sun in between, with no rain icons, and Sky Harbor stayed dry: right.
- ABC15: Off by 14 degrees total over 5 days, about 3 degrees a day. Gave Thursday a 70% chance of rain, and Sky Harbor stayed dry. Its 0% the rest of the way was right.
- 12News: Off by 18 degrees total over 5 days, about 4 degrees a day. Gave Thursday an 80% chance of rain, and Sky Harbor stayed dry. Its 0% the rest of the way was right.
Scored on the five days that had already happened when we pulled the numbers on Monday, Oct. 26, using the forecasts we saved on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
Why does it say cloudy when it's raining?
A forecast icon shows the main weather for the whole day, not every hour. A “30% chance of rain,” like ABC15 and 12News give Saturday, means about a 3-in-10 chance that any one spot in the Valley gets at least a little rain (0.01 inch). It doesn't mean rain for 30% of the day. Last Thursday shows the other side: two stations gave 70% and 80%, and Sky Harbor stayed dry. A high chance still isn't a promise for your street, and the Valley is big enough for a storm to hit one side of town and miss the other.
Why are the numbers so similar?
Through Thursday the four stations match almost to the degree, probably because they start from the same computer forecast data and adjust it a little. They split when a storm is coming, like this weekend; if you build forecasts at one of these stations, tell us how it works and we'll correct this.
When the storms come Friday, tell us your neighborhood and how much rain you got. We'll compare it to the forecasts.
Pulled and averaged by Claude (AI) from publicly posted forecasts. Not affiliated with any station. Reviewed by Dave before publishing.
Forecasts: ABC15 · AZFamily (10-Day tab) · FOX 10 · 12News. Actual weather: National Weather Service Phoenix.
