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# Valley Forecast Check: Storms today, then a dry week. One big split on Thursday
- URL: https://postmarq.org/valley-forecast-check-storms-today-then-a-dry-week-one-big-split-on-thursday/
- Published: 2026-10-21T16:54:27.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-22T02:02:49.000Z
- Description: Four Phoenix TV forecasts for Oct. 22–28, side by side, plus how last week’s calls held up at Sky Harbor.
- Author: Dave Contreras
- Tags: Weather, Valley Forecast Check, #ai-assisted

Valley Forecast Check · Week 2 · Oct. 22–28

After today’s storms, all four Phoenix TV stations see a dry, sunny stretch, with highs near 80 this weekend and mid-80s early next week. The big split is Thursday: ABC15 and 12News give it a 70–80% chance of rain, while Arizona’s Family says 19%. And Arizona’s Family and FOX 10 posted the exact same high for all seven days.

This week’s check was pulled midweek (Wednesday, Oct. 21), so the scorecard covers Sunday through Tuesday only. Next week it’s back to a full week.

## This week’s highs

Daily high in degrees, for Phoenix. The **Average** row is all four stations.

| Station  | Thu10/22 | Fri10/23 | Sat10/24 | Sun10/25 | Mon10/26 | Tue10/27 | Wed10/28 |
| -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |
| ABC15    | 84       | 79       | 79       | 81       | 84       | 84       | 82       |
| AZFamily | 83       | 79       | 78       | 81       | 85       | 87       | 84       |
| FOX 10   | 83       | 79       | 78       | 81       | 85       | 87       | 84       |
| 12News   | 82       | 78       | 78       | 80       | 83       | 84       | 83       |
| Average  | 83       | 79       | 78       | 81       | 84       | 86       | 83       |

Tuesday is a split: two stations say 87, two say 84.

## This week’s rain chances

Rain chance: the odds that any one spot gets at least 0.01 inch. FOX 10 shows icons, not percentages, so we list its icon as a word. The average uses the three stations with percentages.

| Station  | Thu10/22 | Fri10/23 | Sat10/24 | Sun10/25 | Mon10/26 | Tue10/27 | Wed10/28 |
| -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |
| ABC15    | 70%      | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       |
| AZFamily | 19%      | 4%       | 13%      | 4%       | 3%       | 3%       | 2%       |
| FOX 10   | Cloudy   | Sunny    | Sunny    | Sunny    | Cloudy   | Cloudy   | Cloudy   |
| 12News   | 80%      | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       | 0%       |
| Average  | 56%      | 1%       | 4%       | 1%       | 1%       | 1%       | 1%       |

## How right were they?

We checked last week’s forecasts (pulled Saturday, Oct. 17) against what actually happened at Sky Harbor, Sunday through Tuesday. The National Weather Service recorded highs of 84, 91 and 93, and no rain.

FOX 10

Off by 7° total over 3 days (about 2.3° a day)

Showed partly cloudy, no rain icons. It stayed dry.

ABC15

Off by 10° total over 3 days (about 3.3° a day)

Rain chances of 40%, 20% and 10%. It stayed dry.

Arizona’s Family

Off by 10° total over 3 days (about 3.3° a day)

Rain chances of 12% to 15%. It stayed dry.

12News

Off by 10° total over 3 days (about 3.3° a day)

Rain chances of 20%, 20% and 0%. It stayed dry.

**Closest this week: FOX 10.** Every station guessed too cool on Monday and Tuesday. Forecasts said 87 to 90; Sky Harbor hit 91 and 93.

## Why does it say cloudy when it’s raining?

A forecast icon shows the main weather for the whole day, not every hour. A “40% chance of rain” means about a 4-in-10 chance that any one spot gets at least a little rain (0.01 inch). It doesn’t mean rain for 40% of the day. The Valley is huge, so a storm can soak one neighborhood while Sky Harbor stays dry, and the forecast was still “right.” That’s also why a 40% day that stays dry isn’t a miss.

## Why are the numbers so similar?

When stations match almost to the degree, they’re probably starting from the same computer forecast data and adjusting a little. This week Arizona’s Family and FOX 10 matched on all seven highs. We don’t know for sure, so if you work at one of these stations, tell us how you build your forecast.

What did you see?

Did today’s storms hit your neighborhood? How hot did it get where you are? Tell us in the comments so we can compare.

Bonus: what are traders betting?

Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, runs daily markets on Phoenix’s high and low temperature. Curious what traders think today? [See the Phoenix weather markets on Kalshi →](https://kalshi.com/search?q=phoenix%20weather&ref=postmarq.org)

Heads up: this is real money, and you can lose what you put in. Arizona’s attorney general has fought Kalshi in court. A federal judge has blocked the state from prosecuting it, but after an August 2026 appeals ruling went against Kalshi in a Nevada case, Arizona asked to lift that block. As of Oct. 21, 2026, the block still stands. Postmarq isn’t paid for this link.

Averaged by Claude (AI) from publicly posted forecasts, pulled Wednesday, Oct. 21\. Not affiliated with any station. Forecasts: [ABC15](https://www.abc15.com/weather/daily-forecast?ref=postmarq.org) · [Arizona’s Family](https://www.azfamily.com/weather/?ref=postmarq.org) · [FOX 10](https://www.fox10phoenix.com/weather?ref=postmarq.org) · [12News](https://www.12news.com/weather?ref=postmarq.org). Actual weather: [National Weather Service, Phoenix Sky Harbor](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PSR&issuedby=PHX&product=CF6&ref=postmarq.org). Court status: [DeFi Rate legal tracker](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/legal/sources/?ref=postmarq.org), updated Oct. 20.